New Delhi: The Taliban is unlikely to take any action that would antagonise India as they are aware that New Delhi is now a serious strategic partner of Washington, former Indian foreign secretary Shyam Saran has said.
In an exclusive interview to ThePrint, Saran said that the Taliban is reaching out to India in a bid to find support for its legitimacy as that could ultimately help it find acceptance from the West as well.
“They (Taliban) may think that in terms of that objective, where the western countries will recognise them, and if India is leaning towards acceptance of the Taliban as a legitimate government, then this might help… So that may be one of the reasons why we are seeing the Taliban reaching out to India,” Saran told ThePrint.
Earlier this week, as the US announced an official end to its longest war in Afghanistan, New Delhi spoke to Taliban’s top leader Sher Mohammad Abbas Stanikzai.
The move came even as India ensured that the UN adopted Resolution 2593 (2021), which “unequivocally” conveys that Afghan territory should not be used to attack any country and shelter terrorists. The resolution was passed just before India’s UNSC presidency ended on 31 August.
The Taliban is likely to announce the formation of its new government in Kabul Friday after the afternoon prayers.
While the Narendra Modi government is unlikely to recognise the Taliban government immediately, it remains to be seen how the Islamic group approaches ties with New Delhi after government formation.
In that respect, Saran noted that the Taliban is not a monolithic entity.
“There are different factions and different groups. Perhaps there is a group within the Taliban which genuinely believes that there is potential to do trade with India and we are a very big market for their exports … so in terms of any kind of economic stabilisation, that could play an important role,” said Saran.
“The group would also want India to continue with some of its programmes that it had in Afghanistan, particularly some of the social welfare programmes,” he said.
During the 20-year long war, India had extended development aid worth $3 billion-$5 billion for Afghanistan.
However, Saran believes there are also other factions within the Taliban who would not want cordial bilateral ties with India.
“The question is, if this view (having friendly ties with India) is shared by other factions within the Taliban… we don’t have an idea about that. What we are now essentially seeing is the Doha faction. Now whether what they are saying, which is a much more sophisticated and cosmopolitan external face… (that faction) perhaps is not in control of the ground situation… this aspect is not clear,” he said.
“And if you have groups like the Haqqani Network, which is a very influential group and which is also much more closely associated with the Pakistani ISI, what role they will play is not clear as well,” added Saran.
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‘Pakistan would not want India’s presence in Afghanistan’
Saran, who has also served as the Indian prime minister’s special envoy for nuclear affairs, also believes that Pakistan will not make it easy for India to have a physical presence in Afghanistan.
“One thing I am clear about is that the minimal objective of Pakistan, having got this far, would be to eliminate any possibility of an Indian presence in Afghanistan. Some elements within the Taliban may not agree with that,” said Saran.
“But if there is at least a group which is ready to play that role, then no matter what may be the attitude of the other moderate faction, if they are able to even create a perception of a serious threat to an Indian presence in Afghanistan, then that (Pakistani) objective is met,” he said.
India’s role in Afghanistan then, he said, will get “limited” if it is unable to have a physical presence there.
“India’s ability to do other things is limited because you really cannot do much unless you are present there. You cannot play a role there with a remote control. Any role in the future does involve an ability for India to be able to maintain, if not a substantial presence, but at least a major presence in the country,” Saran stressed.
On the potential role Beijing is planning to play under the new Taliban dispensation, the former foreign secretary said India “won’t be able to match what the Chinese will be doing in Afghanistan”.
“We have not been able to do so in our immediate neighbourhood — be it Sri Lanka, be it Bangladesh, be it Nepal — so how can we assume we will be able to take on that very large role of an economic benefactor in Afghanistan?” he said.
“But it is also true that the Chinese, in the 1990s, did not invest in Afghanistan (when the Taliban was in power there). They also adopted a wait-and-watch policy at that time. So I am not very sure that what we are looking at is, at least, a limited period of political stability. Yes, it’s an armed peace, but peace, nevertheless,” he said.
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‘West’s recognition critical for Taliban’
Saran said the Taliban will find it “critical” to be recognised by the West as the Islamic group gets set to announce a government in Afghanistan. Support from just China, Russia and Pakistan won’t do it for the Taliban, he said.
Saran said to govern effectively, the Taliban would need funds and international aid and so support from the western countries would be needed. However, a “broad consensus” within the P-5 countries — the US, the UK, France, China and Russia — of the UN Security Council (UNSC) is missing today.
The P-5 nations are the permanent members of the UNSC.
“One cannot say that there is a broad consensus amongst the major powers after we saw that the Russians and the Chinese abstained from voting (on the resolution). The sense of triumphalism is not only with the Taliban or with the Pakistanis. But it’s very much there with the Russians and the Chinese,” Saran said.
He also said that the Russians are particularly seeing the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan as “payback time” as they were ousted from that country with support of the Americans in 1989. So it has come a full circle, he said.
Such “triumphalism” can also be seen on China’s part because of the ongoing tensions between Washington and Beijing, said Saran.
After taking over provincial capitals in Afghanistan at a blistering pace, the Taliban took over Kabul on 15 August in a massive show of force as the former Afghan President Ashraf Ghani and some of his men fled to other countries.
“I am not very sure of the kind of consensus that the Taliban needs (in order) to have a smooth passage to international recognition,” he said.
“The Taliban government would need the money that has been locked-up, which now stands frozen, and Afghanistan desperately needs the funds to flow and that will not be possible unless, firstly, you have a credible government in place in Kabul, and secondly, that particular government is able to get broad international acceptance,” said Saran.
“It will not be enough for the new government just to get recognition from Russia and China and Pakistan. Recognition of western countries is critical,” he noted.
(Edited by Amit Upadhyaya)
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