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India fears Pakistan may play foul as Afghan presidential polls are delayed again

Originally scheduled for 20 April, the presidential election is now likely to be held on 28 September, two months beyond an earlier postponement to 20 July.

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New Delhi: The deferment of the Afghan presidential election once again has triggered concern in Kabul and New Delhi over the prospect of Pakistani interference in the war-torn country.

Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan’s call to set up an interim government to resolve a reported impasse in Islamabad and Washington’s peace talks with the Taliban has only added to the annoyance.

Originally scheduled for 20 April, the presidential election is now likely to be held on 28 September, two months beyond an earlier postponement to 20 July.

Afghanistan finds itself grappling with deep uncertainty as the US, eager to withdraw its troops from a 17-year war increasingly unpopular among its citizens, and Pakistan try to negotiate a peace deal with the Taliban without the participation of Kabul.

While the Afghan government has refused to participate in a peace dialogue not led by it, the Taliban has said it won’t negotiate with an administration it doesn’t recognise.

There have been fears among Afghan officials that the peace deal may include the installation of an interim government with a possible role for the terror group, which has been responsible for scores of attacks in the country.

Any such setup, it is feared, could undo the small gains for stability made by Kabul over the years.


Also read: Indian analysts worry about advantage Pakistan as US-Afghanistan ties hit new low


Expiry date

The term of the Ashraf Ghani administration is due to expire 22 May, and the Afghan constitution dictates that the election be held 30 to 60 days before the expiry date.

This has triggered questions about the legitimacy of the Ghani government in the days following 22 May, including by former national security adviser Mohammed Hanif Atmar. A strong opponent to Ghani in the upcoming election, Atmar has backed calls for a caretaker or interim government.

According to a senior government official, the postponement of the Afghan presidential election is a cause of concern to the extent that any further delay in electing a stable government in Kabul will result in “increasing interference by Pakistan”.

Former Afghanistan interior minister and vice-presidential hopeful Amrullah Saleh lashed out at Pakistani PM Khan’s remarks in a tweet Tuesday.

“The PM of Pakistan asks for abrogation of Afghan constitution & demolition of democratic system as a way to break the so-called deadlock in peace efforts. That is the price ISI wants us to pay to appease terrorism.”

India has been opposed to an interim government too, with Foreign Secretary Vijay Gokhale telling the Trump administration during his visit to the US this month that New Delhi would not like to see a caretaker administration in place.

However, former Indian envoy to Afghanistan Vivek Katju said India ought to be prepared for any eventuality.

“India should have a realistic approach towards the emerging situation in Afghanistan and frame policies which are based not on what ought to be but what is and is likely to be,” he added.

‘Donor commitment’

The Afghan presidential election was to come months after last year’s much-delayed parliamentary poll, whose results are still being tallied amid widespread allegations of voter fraud.

The presidential poll was initially postponed from 20 April to 20 July as the Ashraf Ghani government wanted to prepare for the polls in a “better” way following the chaos of the parliamentary elections, the Afghan Independent Election Commission (IEC), the poll panel, had stated then.

Last week, the IEC again deferred the election to 28 September, saying that it needs “time to reform and fix issues”.

However, experts say the main reason behind the deferment is that Kabul has not been able to garner financial support from the US and Europe for the election.

Traditionally, presidential elections in Afghanistan have been financed through donations from Western nations, diplomatic sources said.

“Donor commitment to (Afghan) elections is key as the process is funded by donors, mainly from the West,” said Amar Sinha, member of the National Security Advisory Board and a former Indian ambassador to Afghanistan.

“Given the challenges of security and logistics, it is an expensive enterprise if cost-per-vote is taken into account,” he added.


Also read: Pakistan directs Pulwama fire at Afghanistan, says peace talks to be hit if India attacks


Taliban peace talks

President Ashraf Ghani, who is eyeing a second-term for himself, continues to remain disturbed by the fact that while the Taliban is talking to the US, it has refused to engage with his government.

This, despite the fact that Ghani has played peacemaker through his tenure by inviting several Taliban leaders into the mainstream.

According to Sinha, who was part of the two-member delegation that represented India at ‘non-official’ level in the Moscow-led talks with the Taliban last year, the negotiations “have not yet reached any conclusion on reconciliation, ceasefire and intra-Afghan dialogue so I do not see any immediate outcome”.

“Afghans will reject any solution that is imposed on them without their concurrence,” he added.

According to a senior Indian government official, it does not matter for New Delhi when the elections take place, as long as the Afghan constitution is honoured, all sections of society are represented in the elections in a fair manner, and rights of minorities are taken care of.

The official added that New Delhi is keen to see that the elections go through despite all odds, irrespective of any timeline.

Pakistan had donned the hat of a facilitator in the peace talks by organising meetings between the US and the Taliban.

The Afghan government has always maintained that any peace talks with the Taliban will have to be Afghan-owned and Afghan-led.

The government had established a ‘peace council’ with the objective of bringing the Taliban to the negotiating table. But the Taliban rejected it.

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