India’s quarterly GDP numbers come with a lag of two months and IIP numbers with one month. Policy-makers will need to look at more real time data like GST for assessing the impact of the pandemic and devising rescue measures to ensure that India effectively contains the economic fallout.
Trump is inconsistent, US role as global cop has diminished. India’s done well to turn down China mediation offer
US President Donald Trump is doing India no favour by trying to intervene in its conflicts with Pakistan and China. The role of the US as a global policeman has diminished over decades. And Trump himself is known for diplomatic inconsistencies. India has done well to turn down the offer.
The GDP data for the last quarter ( 3.1% ) of the previous financial year and the year as a whole ( 4.2% ) predates the pandemic. Brings to mind images of carefree tourists gambolling on beaches in south east Asia moments before the Indian Ocean tsunami struck. For the April – June quarter, Goldman Sachs has estimated a shrinkage of 45%. Whether an economic team that has dragged growth down so much in relatively sunny weather over the last six years can handle this perfect storm is hard to say. Misgivings are bound to arise if one considers how the medical aspect of the pandemic has been responded to.