The latest India-US 2+2 talks and agreements are a welcome sign of New Delhi giving up its geostrategic hesitations and hypocrisies. Strategic autonomy is not a mantra but an evolving concept. Bonds between countries grow stronger not just when they have shared interests but also when there’s a shared threat.
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There have emerged two distinct possibilities in the wake of this 2+2 agreement. One is obviously that of tremendous morale boost to India, but this may paradoxically prove more dangerous for India. Alarmed or panicked at this clear India-advantage, China may decide to strike heavily and cripple a no-Rafale-India which suffers equipment deficiency on other accounts as well. Because, no matter how supportive the USA is to India, it will never send its OWN jets and missiles to help India because that would tantamount to declaring the III World War.
We must also remember that despite making all those noises for 50 years about Taiwan being its own territory, China has never taken a precipitative action. It hasn’t anywhere, according to my limited knowledge on such issues. It went to browbeat Vietnam, but when the latter showed its fangs, the dragon just decided to sit around and keep fuming.
Whether this 2+2 thing was a paranoid overreaction or a wise move on the chessboard, next 6-12 months will tell
Washington Post today reported that during during talks with Pompeo ans Esper Jaishankar and Rajnath Singh didn’t even mentioned China by name, ” …… but alluded to the tensions. “Upholding the territorial integrity and the sovereignty of all states” is essential, said Rajnath Singh, India’s defense minister.
It further mentioned that, “India is unlikely ever to become a formal ally of the United States, given its long commitment to strategic independence, but there is no question that the security partnership between the two democracies has intensified.”
Former ambassador MK Bhadrakumar believes alignment with the US is not a good idea, as it would lead to a US-Indian military alliance, which would be a profound irrevocable commitment. He says India has an option of ‘dealignment’: “Clearly, instead of the risky gambit to align with the US, India has an alternative option to optimally tap into the international environment for meeting its development needs by pursuing a policy of ‘dealignment’.”
A string of pearls is now being laid for China. India is not the only country to have hesitated for so long. Others in the region both fear China and wish to continue to trade with it. Receive its tourists, be engaged with its fantastic economy. It is for the Chinese government, all the more if Americans vote for Joe Biden on Tuesday, to review if its wolf warrior diplomacy has done a lot more harm than good. US hegemony has lasted for a hundred years because its power has been used, for the most part, with moderation, it has been at the heart of globalisation, growth, innovation. A force for good. A country talented people from all over the world wish to settle in. As China approaches the US in size of economy, other attributes of power, it needs to reflect whether it is on a sustainable path. India is buying life insurance.