The party is battling huge anti-incumbency after Raman Singh’s 15 years in power, but hopes Jogi and his new party can eat into Congress votes.
New Delhi: The BJP is banking on one big personality to win Chhattisgarh for the fourth successive term later this year. It’s not three-term Chief Minister Raman Singh; it’s actually former CM and ex-Congress strongman Ajit Jogi.
The buzz in political circles is that Jogi—who quit the Congress in 2016 after his son Amit was expelled for anti-party activities—still has the ability to secure a crucial number of votes in several constituencies. And so, the BJP is trying to make sure that it comes to an explicit or tacit understanding with Jogi and his Janata Congress Chhattisgarh (Jogi) party.
The likelier scenario is a tacit understanding, in which case, most seats will see a triangular contest between the ruling BJP, the opposition Congress, and Jogi’s party. Jogi is likely to eat into a big chunk of traditional Congress votes, helping the BJP win in the face of tremendous anti-incumbency.
Jogi has publicly insisted that his party will contest the elections on its own, going as far as to announce that he’ll contest opposite Raman Singh. He wants to emerge as a strong alternative to the BJP, something he says the Congress hasn’t done.
“The perception that the Congress is soft on the BJP has hurt the former. Jogi will play on this sentiment to hurt the Congress,” said a senior BJP leader from Chhattisgarh.
Jogi’s clout
Chhattisgarh has so far seen bipolar contests between the Congress and the BJP. In fact, the gap between the two parties in terms of vote share has been minuscule – 2.55 per cent in 2003, 1.80 per cent in 2008, and just 0.77 per cent in 2013.
In such a scenario, Jogi’s party is something neither of the bigwigs can afford to ignore.
Jogi commands a clout on at least 10 reserved seats in the state, and has a considerable following among Dalits and OBCs. The BJP has assessed he can influence close to 40 seats in the 90-seat state assembly.
“He is not in a position to win, but can spoil the Congress’s chances of winning,” added a source.
Taking a leaf out of V.C. Shukla’s book
Senior leaders recall how Vidya Charan Shukla, a veteran Congress leader, had spoiled the party for Jogi himself in 2003, when he was defeated as the incumbent first CM of the state.
“Just six months before the elections, Shukla had launched the Chhattisgarh Sangharsh Parishad, and then joined Sharad Pawar’s Nationalist Congress Party to fight off Jogi. The NCP managed to win only one seat and a total vote share of seven per cent but brought doom for the Congress,”
another senior BJP leader from Chhattisgarh recalled.
“Now, we estimate that Jogi can get around 10 per cent of the vote share from the Congress vote bank. What’s more, unlike Shukla, Jogi’s new party has been working in the state for the past two years.”
Can Congress woo Jogi back?
The Congress doesn’t seem to have learnt its lessons in Chhattisgarh, despite spending 15 of the state’s 18 years in existence out of power. It has been unable to sort out its internal differences.
Some leaders say that it is not out of the realms of possibility that the Congress may try to bring Jogi back into the fold, as the party has been trying new things like aligning with Gujarat youth leaders Jignesh Mevani and Hardik Patel.