Turmoil in the Baloch assembly has sunk PML(N)’s hope of getting a majority in the upper house, with which it could change the laws to help Nawaz Sharif.
Defying all conspiracy theories, Pakistan is now set to hold general elections. The uncertainty is mitigated with the announcement of the mid-term Senate elections in March, thus clearing the way for National Assembly polls later this year.
But given the volatility of Pakistani politics, it is not so straightforward either.
With Nawaz Sharif’s corruption trial and money laundering charges winding up next month, another political crisis is waiting to implode. His possible conviction could change the political dynamics. The Supreme Court last year removed him from the office of prime minister for perjury, and there is little hope of him getting a reprieve on more serious criminal charges. The anti-corruption court has already issued arrest warrants against his two sons, who are also implicated in the case. Both live abroad.
While Sharif is on a warpath, taking on the two most dominant institutions of the state, his party still rules both at the Centre and the most powerful province of Punjab. Despite being disqualified, he still heads the ruling party and continues to guide the federal government. It is certainly an extraordinary situation.
It is getting increasingly tense as the country gets into election mode. Removal from the office and the sword of conviction hanging over him has not deterred the former prime minister from running the campaign. His tenor against the judiciary and security agencies is becoming increasingly strident.
There may not be a groundswell of sympathy for him, but Sharif’s power base in Punjab appears intact. The absence of a strong opposition challenging the ruling Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) has also given him huge political boost. He still remains the most powerful political leader in the country.
The failure of the opposition parties to come together has enhanced Sharif’s confidence. His party has particularly benefitted from bitter fighting between his two major opponents — the Pakistan Peoples’ Party (PPP) and Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf (PTI).
Imran Khan, who has been leading the anti-government campaign seems to be losing ground to Sharif’s onslaught. Some recent opinion polls have shown the former cricket captain-turned-politician trailing behind Sharif in popularity. Meanwhile, the ruling PML (N) has won all the by-elections in its stronghold Punjab in the last few months, thus giving the party greater impetus.
While Sharif remains defiant, the judiciary too has struck back sending contempt notices to him, his daughter Maryam and some members of the federal cabinet. Earlier this week, the Supreme Court unseated a ruling party senator and sent him to prison for one month for making inflammatory remarks against the judges.
It is the first time in the country’s history that a member parliament has been jailed for contempt of law. The controversial judgment has intensified the clash between the apex court and the ruling party. Sharif’s confrontation with the judiciary and security establishment has made it more difficult for him to win the battle. There is a serious danger that this no-holds-barred confrontation may spin completely out of control.
Sharif received a serious political blow last month when an apparent internal revolt brought down his party’s government in the troubled western province of Balochistan. Sharif has blamed the security agencies for manipulating the fall of the provincial government. The provincial chief minister lost his majority overnight, and disparate political parties came together, lending credence to the conspiracy theories about the security establishment being involved in undermining Sharif.
Balochistan was the only province beside Punjab where Sharif’s PML(N) was in power, although the party controls the central government as well. More intriguing is the installation in power of a minority party with the support of PML(N) rebels and opposition groups.
The Balochistan episode has sunk the hope of PML(N) getting an absolute majority in the upper house that could have allowed the party to change the laws that could have helped strike down his disqualification. All four provinces have equal number of seats in the Senate, elected by provincial legislators. So now, the PML(N) will not be able to win a single seat from Baluchistan. The situation in Sindh and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa is similar, thus reducing the PML(N) to Punjab.
Sharif’s conviction could further compound the predicament of the federal government run by his loyalists. It remains to be seen how the other institutions of state, particularly the military, would act in that situation.
Sharif is not backing down just yet. And the judiciary and security establishment will not let him come back at any cost. The post-election scenario does not seem promising. The game is only getting murkier.
Zahid Hussain, Journalist and author of “The Scorpion’s Tail: The Relentless Rise of Islamic Militants in Pakistan-And How It Threatens America.”
Author’s comment that the judiciary and security establishment will not let him come back at any cost are presumptive. We expect them to take decision honestly on merit. Some lawyers feel that SC decison has enabled Nawaz Sharif’s narrative that he has been ousted on innocent mistake of non-declaration of Aqama. It coulod have more precise as was the first decision of two judges.