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Global Pulse: Thailand’s postponed elections shows the junta wants to keep a grip on power

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The United States has been fighting an endless war in Afghanistan, with not foreseeable conclusion to the conflict. The Thai junta is doing its best to cling to power in the country, and the Czech Republic is only the latest country to embark on right-wing journey in Europe.

A presidential precedent

The Czech Republic just re-elected Milos Zeman to President. Zeman is, as Anne Applebaum writes in the Washington Post, “vulgar and sexist (not to mention aggressively pro-Russian, pro-Chinese, anti-European and anti-NATO) and has been accused of public drunkenness”. His reelection will set the tone of public life in the country.

“In this role, he will certainly reinforce the stereotype of central Europe as “different” from the rest of Europe. Poland and Hungary, both now run by anti-European politicians bent on controlling the judiciary and the media, are already discounted by many in Europe and considered to be on their way out of the democratic camp; now the Czechs will join them,” writes Applebaum.

The trend across Europe is startling, as she points out.

“Of course, it may be no coincidence that this particular brand of politics captured presidencies and prime ministerships in central Europe: The independent media is extremely weak in small countries where advertising markets can’t support it, and public debate is dominated by conspiratorial websites and cheap tabloids. In Germany and France, strong public and private media mean that, in general, the level of the national conversation is higher.”

“So maybe there’s no need to say anything except that some of the world’s oldest democracies and some of the world’s newest democracies have more in common than you think,” she writes.

Postponed elections to stay in power

“Last week, Thailand’s junta-appointed legislature voted to delay the implementation of an election law that would effectively postpone the general election to 2019. This is the fourth time the generals have broken their promise to return power to the voters,” writes Pavin Chachavalpongpun in the South China Morning Post.

He writes that political uncertainties threaten the Thai junta’s long-term political interests. This is why the junta relies on its delaying tactics, especially when it comes to the threat from the Sinawatra family.

“The fear of what remains of the Shinawatras’ political influence has been intensified by constant rumours of their intimate ties with King Vajiralongkorn. The royal transition is still ongoing, with no fixed plan for a coronation. The volatility of the situation has driven the military to hold on tightly to power. General elections, as the junta sees it, could shift the political landscape to the benefit of the Shinawatras.”

“King Vajiralongkorn has never suggested that the military must step down soon to pave the way for democracy. Indeed, he needed the army to secure his enthronement,” Chachavalpongpun points out.

However, this doesn’t change the current impasse. “The military is set to continue playing a prominent role in Thai politics in the months to come. There seems to be no exit to the Thai stalemate any time soon.”

Stuck too deep

“We can’t win in Afghanistan because we don’t know why we’re there,” is the headline of Steve Coll’s piece in the New York Times, poignantly summing up the American project in Afghanistan.

“One major reason is American war aims in Afghanistan have been, and remain, riddled with contradictions and illusions that Inter-Services Intelligence can exploit. President Bush, President Barack Obama and President Trump have all offered convoluted, incomplete or unconvincing answers to essential questions: Why are we in Afghanistan? What interests justify our sacrifices? How will the war end?” he asks.

Coll goes on to detail why Pakistan complicates matters for the United States, and brings regional competitors’ interests into the conversation, to see how the US can extract themselves without destabilising the region. “For the United States, an alternative to pursuing difficult and uncertain negotiations would be to give up and leave, but the most likely result of a unilateral military pullout now would be more violence and rising influence for the Taliban and the Islamic State.”

“The most rational course is one for which President Trump would seem poorly suited: to work closely with allies, prioritize high-level diplomacy, be smart in pressuring the Inter-Services Intelligence and accept that in Afghanistan, a starting point for any international policy is humility,” he writes.

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