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HomeOpinionMedia coverage of Gujarat elections raises questions of credibility

Media coverage of Gujarat elections raises questions of credibility

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The media is less into fact-finding, as reporting has got fused with commentary. So you choose both your opinions as well as your facts.

Thirty-eight years ago, in January 1980, Indian psephology was born when India Today commissioned Prannoy Roy and Marg, a market research firm, to do an opinion poll in the run-up to the Lok Sabha elections. The Roy-Marg forecast was that Indira Gandhi (still hated by many because of her Emergency record) would come right back with a two-thirds majority in the House. This was something that no reporter on the election beat was saying. The pundits in the media derided the poll, till the results vindicated it.

History was repeated five years later when the next nationwide opinion poll forecast a landslide for Rajiv Gandhi. Once again, the press was caught flat-footed. Psephology is an inexact science, and has had its ups and downs since then; but, in general, it has tended to be a more reliable barometer of voting behaviour than your average hack (honourable exceptions always exempted).

The problem then was that the reporter’s standard technique of talking to taxi drivers and people in wayside tea shops, assessing the size and enthusiasm of crowds at rallies, and talking to the candidates, was a seriously defective approach when it came to catching the straws in the wind. Vote swings of a couple of percentage points (which is all there usually is, from say 41 per cent to 43 per cent) cannot be accurately gauged by such rough and ready methods. The problem today is different: The media (especially the electronic and digital media) is less into fact-finding, as reporting has got fused with commentary. So you choose both your opinions as well as your facts. That invites questions of credibility.

The nature of our highly differentiated media outlets being what it is, some TV channels or websites might care two hoots for such issues as credibility. Certainly, the pro-Hindutva TV brigade (comprising mostly Hindi language outfits) sees itself as a cheerleader for the BJP. Since they have no illusions or pretensions, perhaps there is nothing more to be said. The anti-crowd (mostly in the English language), in contrast, is so consumed by its angst that it cannot see how uniquely popular Narendra Modi is.

In one state election after the next, the handwringing bunch (with rare exceptions) has been busy forecasting Modi’s comeuppance, only to invariably come up against unwelcome reality. We don’t as yet know the outcome of the Gujarat elections, but the odds must be in favour of a BJP victory, given that both pre-election surveys as well as exit polls have sounded the conch shells. Is that what your favourite TV channel or website told you ahead of the voting?

Admittedly, this is the one state election where you could cite good reasons for the BJP to be on the back foot: lacklustre chief ministers, the damage done by demonetisation, farmer distress, the disruption caused by the goods and services tax, and caste-based agitations. That Modi’s own campaign speeches touched some low points only strengthened the perception of the BJP being on the back foot. Except that this is Gujarat, it has been the BJP’s bastion for more than two decades, it is Modi’s home state, and the Modi-Shah duo goes for broke in every election. Also, the BJP’s past victory margins have been so large that the party could afford to lose some voters to the opposition. So did one’s choice of facts reflect bias?

There is room in a democracy for partisan media—that’s the point of a free press. Britain has pro-Labour and pro-Tory newspapers. And Republicans in the US have long complained about that country’s liberal media—most media outfits and journalists are in states like New York and Massachusetts that vote Democrat. In India, how much if at all does bias depend on the language of the journalist? Is the bulk of the media socialist in orientation? And partisan or independent? Perhaps it doesn’t matter so long as one can and will speak truth to power. But as in the case of the now-famous death of a judge, was it truth at all?

By Special Arrangement with Business Standard

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12 COMMENTS

  1. This is an absolutely remarkable take. I am in awe of Mr. Ninan’s ability to analyze complex things dispassionately. Everybody agrees that he is India’s finest journalist on matters of economy. But his political analysis is also always spot on.

  2. Media today is full of Dallas and power brokers. They know how popular Modi is. But their Dhanda is something else. These powerbrokers are out of their entitlement and so giving a false commentary.
    Presstitutes.

  3. WOW! Another impressive article. It’s almost like putting into words what many of us feel today. Sometimes I miss the good old Door Darshan news that contained no BS, no set agenda, but a plain old sequence of news — today X happened, Y happened and Z happened (and you viewers make sense of how you feel about it). The so-called “panels of experts” that crib on TV channels — and call it news — are deeply annoying!

  4. Do we have non-partisan Newspapers and Media today.I doubt. Years ago news papers like “The HINDU” were reliable. Not now.MAY be they have to be partisan for their existence.

  5. There cannot be a room for a partisan media in a democracy without disclosing it so. Partisan media is antithesis to democracy.

  6. The author rightly observes that ‘reporting has got fused with commentary’. This is becoming a universal problem, especially in electronic media. There is an even bigger problem beyond the increasingly overt editorial agenda: the presenters and moderators (especially in TV debates and discussions) have not been trained / briefed that body language and non-verbal communication is an equally important element of news presenting and moderating. Particularly in India, it is NOT unusual to see a twinkle in the eyes of a moderator when a panelist expresses views that conform to a TV channel’s position, or a frown followed by quick interjection, if a non-conforming view is expressed. Sadly electronic media is blatantly ignoring the rules of good journalism.

  7. It is not about socialism or any other ism. So called national media is anti Hindu and hence anti RSS anti BJP and anti Modi

  8. Media credibility is a complex issue. We as readers were given to believe that Times of India were absolute BJP and Hindutva apologists. And The Hindu is completely liberal, secular. But both publications carry stories that go against this grain, so it’s tough to blanketly label them. The Express exposes a 100 stories against the government and then does a follow-up on the Loya story that immediately starts catcalls of being sold-out. Mint and Hindustan Times for all their reputation of being enlightened have taken some ridiculous positions on Aadhar and demonetisation, which are equally dangerous as the openly Hindutva Hindi language press. I think freedom of press gives every proprietor the right to tilt towards his leanings, but credibility will eventually suffer as we readers catch onto the trend. What’s important is: Modi is not going to lose just because a section of the press desperately wants him to lose. Likewise, Modi is not going to win just because his blind bhakts desperately want him to. This anxiety he causes can colour journalism on both sides. We readers expect journalists to report objectively from the ground and not bring in their biases into reporting. Psephology with market research is what bots could do — crunch numbers. It ll be given only so much respect. But reporters who remain diligent and objective will always be respected. Even if what they report is not inimical to what they or the readers want to hear. Speaking truth to power means being rigorous with reporting. Saying Modi will lose Gujarat when he might not is not speaking truth to power. Neither is saying he will win a sell out.

  9. Exit polls are carried out by Agency, so if it goes wrong, one can’t blame only channel wich has tie-up with it or telecast it.

    Also people comes to know about wrong Exit polls as soon as actual results come out. So over the period, credibility of agency matters. Agency which gives frequent wrong results, hardly anyone will take its output seriously.

    If you observe last 5 years, Today’s Chanayka have most its Exit Poll comes near to actual result (except Bihar where it was horriblly wrong). India Today – My Axis has also good record of all recent exit poll (though winner party got lot more seats than what My axis had predected, but it gave trends write).
    C-Voter too has good credibility but it went wrong recently in Punjab .

    There has no reason for channels to showing wrong Exit poll data and put its own credibility in doubt as exit poll conducted after polling, so no reason channel can cream / earn money from any political parties based on wrong data as within 2 to 4 days actualy results are going to come.

    Yes, chaneel may manipulate opinion poll as its data can infulence few voter’s mind who wanted to vote towards winning party or can boost party workers moral. Channel / Media have good scope to earn money via advertisement from political party on behalf of wrong data.

    For wrong Exit Poll data, Channels has not much reason to telecast it. It telecast what agency has concluded.

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