Vladimir Putin seems to overshadowing Donald Trump in the global power play. But in reality, Russia’s strongman president’s strength comes more from the myths constructed around him as from the actual power he has. His manipulative genius apart, Putin is mostly a gambler who always gets it right.
The illusion of Putin’s absolute power
Vladimir Putin has many Americans convinced of his manipulative genius. But in reality, he is just a gambler who won big, writes Julia Ioffe in The Atlantic.
“In the same way that Russians overestimate America, seeing it as an all-powerful orchestrator of global political developments, Americans project their own fears onto Russia, a country that is a paradox of deftness, might, and profound weakness—unshakably steady, yet somehow always teetering on the verge of collapse. Like America, it is hostage to its peculiar history, tormented by its ghosts.”
“We did an amazing job in the first decade of Putin’s rule of creating the illusion that Putin controls everything in Russia,” says a former Kremlin adviser.
“Both Putin and his country are aging, declining—but the insecurities of decline present their own risks to America. The United States intelligence community is unanimous in its assessment not only that Russians interfered in the U.S. election but that, in the words of former FBI Director James Comey, ‘they will be back’. It is a stunning escalation of hostilities for a troubled country whose elites still have only a tenuous grasp of American politics. And it is classically Putin, and classically Russian: using daring aggression to mask weakness, to avenge deep resentments, and, at all costs, to survive.”
Putin, the omnipotent; Putin, the victim
Being accused and feared by the West would come as a second nature to Vladimir Putin. But within Russia, this curious blend of omnipotence and victimhood is working very well for Putin, suggests Nathan Hodge in the Wall Street Journal.
“Mr. Putin has acquired an aura of competence and power in part thanks to Russia’s swaggering return to the world stage in recent years. On Monday, during a trip to the Middle East, he declared Russia’s military intervention on the side of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad a success; the next day Russian state television broadcast images of Russian troops returning home. The Russian president, who previously got the cold shoulder from other world leaders over the annexation of Crimea, is once again a fixture at international summits. At last month’s Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation conference in Vietnam, he had several conversations with U.S. President Donald Trump, who said he found Mr. Putin ‘very insulted’ by the allegations of electoral meddling.
“But Russian observers say those allegations have helped create an impression among Russian citizens that their president is a political mastermind, a factor they say has raised Mr. Putin’s presidential stature much as his assertive foreign policy has.”
“Being accused, and even feared, in the West hardly hurts him. ‘External pressure strengthens Putin’s position within the Russian elite; the same thing with the population,’ said Evgeny Minchenko, a Russian political analyst. ‘That sense of injury that people have about the Russian team in the Olympics consolidates everyone around Putin.’”
The trust deficit with Putin
Putin may have ordered the withdrawal of Russian troops in visit to Syrian base and gone on a victory lap this week, but his claims ought not to be taken at face value, editorialises The Guardian.
“That the Russian president has now announced a substantial troop withdrawal must be taken with a barrel of salt. Similar pledges have been made before and remain unfulfilled. On Tuesday a Kremlin spokesperson said Russia would retain a sizable force in Syria to fight ‘terrorists’. Russia’s definition of “terrorism” in Syria is like that of the Assad regime, which equates it to political opposition.”
“Geopolitical power games have not ended in Syria, nor has the fighting. In eastern Ghouta, according to the UN, 137 children, including babies, are in urgent need of medical evacuation. By propping up a dictator who starves and massacres his own population, Mr Putin surely owns the desolation in Syria, as much as he controls military bases. Russia has returned to the Middle East, but its responsibilities in the bloodbath are equally on display.”
People who hate liberals can’t even hear them
There is a widening gap between liberals and the people who hate them across the West, writes Ishaan Tharoor in The Washington Post. And while Emmanuel Macron and Angela Merkel may not be able to see it, their language of inclusion and dialogue is exactly what the likes of Trump need to keep their divisive populism going.
“In a year marked by political turbulence and increased polarization in the West, it more and more seems as though the battered liberal establishment and right-wing populists speak different languages. One side champions a shared global future, the other clings to the mythic bonds of blood and soil. One side agonizes about inclusion and dialogue, the other finds its greatest energy in a climate of rage and fear.”
“That is powerfully on show in the United States, where Trump has marshaled his base with claims of restoring a lost past, demonizing immigrants and warring with mainstream institutions, including the media. His messaging revolves around incessant declarations of victory and promises for further success — the building of a wall, the bombing of the enemy, the banning of migrants.
So while Macron and other champions of the liberal order winked and smirked at Trump’s absence in Paris, it’s almost certain the U.S. president didn’t care much — indeed, in the current climate, enemies like Macron are exactly what he may want.”
Beijing’s got no time for democratic pretence in Hong Kong
While the world may be keenly observing China’s policies and tactics across the globe, Beijing is quietly but steadily exerting more visibility into its sovereignty over Hong Kong, writes Michael Chugani in the South China Morninng Post.
“Already, we are hearing subtle warnings from Beijing that it needs to clearly demonstrate who the real boss is after years of deference to Hongkongers. What better way to do that than to make the garrison here a more visible part of our city?
In fact, the train is already in motion. Imagine a senior mainland official daring to spook the city by saying Hong Kong is part of ‘red China’. It would have crossed the line of local sensitivities before. Well, it happened two weeks ago with the crass assertion by the legal head of the central government’s liaison office, Wang Zhenmin, who said Hong Kong has become part of ‘red China’ since reunification because the Communist Party and the country are inseparable.
If he had said that in 2014, he would have turned the Occupy Central movement into a combustible uprising, ensuring even more violence.”
“As we head into the future, your choices are limited. Stand up for the national anthem, recognise Hong Kong as part of red China, and kiss genuine democracy goodbye. If you do all that, you can reap the bountiful benefits the world’s second-largest economy can offer,” he concludes.
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