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Global Pulse: From Saudi Arabia to Zimbabwe, the world is in flux

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While processes for reform have been set in motion across the globe, change seldom comes without risks. From Saudi Arabia, which is going through its own Arab Spring, to Zimbabwe, which is still coming to terms with the end of a 37-year old dictatorship, risks abound.

Arab Spring, Saudi style

Saudi Arabia is going through its own Arab Spring. Unlike the other Arab Springs, all of which emerged bottom up, this one is led from the top down by the country’s 32-year-old crown prince, and, if it succeeds, it will not only change the character of Saudi Arabia but the tone and tenor of Islam across the globe, writes Thomas Friedman in The New York Times.

The much talked about anticorruption drive, writes Friedman, is only “the second-most unusual and important initiative launched by M.B.S. The first is to bring Saudi Islam back to its more open and modern orientation — whence it diverted in 1979. That is, back to what M.B.S. described to a recent global investment conference here as a ‘moderate, balanced Islam that is open to the world and to all religions and all traditions and peoples.'”

“Indeed, M.B.S. instructed me: ‘Do not write that we are ‘reinterpreting’ Islam — we are ‘restoring’ Islam to its origins — and our biggest tools are the Prophet’s practices and [daily life in] Saudi Arabia before 1979.’ At the time of the Prophet Muhammad, he argued, there were musical theaters, there was mixing between men and women, there was respect for Christians and Jews in Arabia. ‘The first commercial judge in Medina was a woman!” So if the Prophet embraced all of this, M.B.S. asked, “Do you mean the Prophet was not a Muslim?'”

“Alas, who Saudi Arabia is also includes a large cohort of older, more rural, more traditional Saudis, and pulling them into the 21st century will be a challenge. But that’s in part why every senior bureaucrat is working crazy hours now. They know M.B.S. can call them on the phone at any of those hours to find out if something he wanted done is getting done. I told him his work habits reminded me of a line in the play ‘Hamilton,’ when the chorus asks: Why does he always work like “he’s running out of time.”

Exhilaration and trauma in post-Mugabe Zimbabwe

Robert Mugabe may be gone, but the tyrannical system he created is still alive, editorialises The New York Times. Exhilarating as it is, his departure is bound to be traumatic too.

“That the transition had at least the semblance of legitimacy is to be welcomed. But it is a stretch to presume that Mr. Mnangagwa, or ZANU-PF, or the military — all of whom colluded in Mr. Mugabe’s rapacious rule — will change stripes once in charge. Mr. Mnangagwa was the security head when a North Korean-trained force massacred thousands of civilians in a campaign against the rival Ndebele ethnic group. General Chiwenga was involved in the brutal crackdown after Mr. Mugabe’s loss in the first round of elections in 2008. And ZANU-PF harbors the benefactors of the spoils of misrule.”

“Mr. Mnangagwa could make a new start by lifting some of the more onerous repressive measures, like eliminating the new Ministry of Cyber Security, Threat Detection and Mitigation, which was supposed to monitor online criticism of the government. He could also bring the opposition leader, Morgan Tsvangirai, into the government and could prepare for free and fair elections next year.

To improve the low odds of that happening, the United States, Britain, other Western governments and Zimbabwe’s African neighbors must offer Zimbabwe a financial lifeline, along with an unequivocal demand that the government hold internationally supervised elections next year.”

Is the replacement any better?

Once the celebrating died down, murky questions about Mugabe’s successor came up to the surface. Emmerson Mnangagwa is “a former Mugabe henchman notorious for persecuting the opposition and for organizing the rigging of elections”, writes The Economist. So will he be able to bring about any real change?

Zimbabwe is in need of dire economic reform, and this is where most expectations lie, which Mnangagwa seems keyed into. Promising a “new democracy”, he told supporters in Harare that “We want to grow our economy, we want peace, we want jobs.”

“Many doubt that Mr Mnangagwa would allow a fair election: ie, one that he might actually lose. Under the constitution his presidential term must conclude at the end of his predecessor’s five-year mandate—by August next year.”

“If Mr Mnangagwa can steady the economy and create a new mood of harmony during the post-Mugabe transition, perhaps he could win respect, if not the popularity that has so far eluded him. Despite his reputation as a party hatchet-man, many Zimbabweans hope that he can surprise them and turn over a kinder leaf. “People are confused,” says Joice Mujuru, a former vice-president who was expelled from the ruling party in 2014. “This situation is not at all static.”

Trouble brewing in Honduras

Another authoritarian leader is digging his heels deeper into his country, this time in Central America. The President of Honduras, Juan Orlando Hernández, is trying to be re-elected, even though re-election is illegal in the country, writes Jan Schakowsky in the New York Times.

In 2015, the Supreme Court of Honduras backed Hernández’s effort to hold onto power for more than one term, saying that it limits and individual’s right to office. Now, Hernández is using that justify his re-election campaign.

“In the face of protests, Mr. Hernández’s government has been tightening its already firm grip on society. International observers and human rights defenders have been threatened and kicked out of the country. Student demonstrations have been violently broken up by the police. The government has passed laws that could restrict the right to protest,” wites Schakowsky. “Given his total control over the election process, we can’t expect him and his corrupt manipulators to allow a free and fair election to decide their fate.”

With violence and the repression of civil society setting the stage, the Honduran people will head to the polls non November 26th.

“They will be handed a ballot that illegally lists Mr. Hernández as a candidate, and they are likely to face coercion, intimidation and bribes to sway their vote in favor of the sitting president.
Still, the Honduran people remain engaged. Vibrant political campaigns are being waged. Many brave voters will head to the polls and do everything in their power to make their voices heard.”

In plain view of the international community, “Mr. Hernández is inching closer and closer to authoritarian rule and all-out dictatorship.”

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