Talk Point: Is the Congress battle-ready for 2019 with Rahul Gandhi at the helm?

Rahul Gandhi addressing a crowd | Source: INC website

In ThePrint’s Off The Cuff event on 16 October Congress leaders Sachin Pilot and Jyotiraditya Scindia said that post-2014 said the party has introspected since 2014, learnt its lessons and is now changing. They said that 2019 is still up for the taking and is not a lost cause.

Rahul Gandhi is now set to head the Congress party by December.

But has the Congress learnt its lessons from 2014, and with Rahul Gandhi about to take over, is it battle-ready for 2019?

Efforts are on to repackage Rahul Gandhi, but the real test will be winning elections consistently

Pranab Dhal Samanta
Editor, ThePrint

The Congress has had its moments in these three years of the Narendra Modi government, but has failed to build on it.

Whether it was the impact of Rahul Gandhi’s ‘suit boot ki sarkar’ remark or the tremendous win of the Mahagathbandan alliance in Bihar, the Congress did get some wind pretty soon after the 2014 debacle. The only problem was that it could neither harness nor harvest this wind, as was evident by Nitish Kumar’s return to the BJP fold.

While young Congressmen like Jyotiraditya Scindia and Sachin Pilot claim that this time they will have a better plan, given the sheer range of issues to target the BJP — from unemployment, GST implementation to intolerance and corruption scams in BJP-ruled states, little has changed at the top to inspire confidence.

The imminent takeover of Rahul Gandhi as party president is, frankly, more ceremonial than substantive. This is because he has functioned very much like a party president for at least the past couple of years.

Is the Congress willing to draw up its own agenda based on the lessons of 2014 and other elections that it has lost since then? There’s little evidence of any major introspection.
Efforts are on to repackage Rahul Gandhi, but the real test will be to win elections consistently.

The optimism displayed by both these leaders cannot belie the fact that the Grand Old Party is now working hard to shore up allies. Increasingly, it’s this role of a coalition builder that the party seems to be counting on for the 2019 election — the big idea being to consolidate all anti-BJP votes through an umbrella framework.

But to accomplish this kind of political work, the old and the young guard will need to come together. And that’s the big challenge Rahul Gandhi faces while stepping into his mother’s shoes.

Rahul Gandhi’s leadership will completely derail Modi’s Jumla Express

Jaiveer Shergill
National Media Panellist, Indian National Congress

There is a German proverb, “Promises are like the full moon, if they are not kept at once they diminish day by day”. This is happening with the BJP since May, 2014, and the consequences are reflected in the ballot boxes, especially bypolls held for various Lok Sabha seats.

The year 2017 is living proof that the Congress, completely written off by many post 2014, is staging a strong comeback after having won Amritsar, Mallapuram, Gujarat Rajya Sabha and now Gurdaspur. The victory margin in Gurdaspur reflects people’s disappointment with Modi and shows the pace at which the BJP ship is sinking.

People have realised that all that glitters is not gold and there is a big difference between governance and sloganeering. Congress has been consistent in voicing people’s concerns on GST, demonetisation and joblessness.

The inability of BJP to give answers on substantive issues and its personal attacks on Rahul Gandhi reflects its nervousness about the Congress wave that is building. The next general election will be fought on real issues and Modi Government will be evaluated on performance rather than speeches. Hypnotism of Hindutva and communal politics will not work.

The Congress is battle ready and marching towards 2019 with strength, confidence and clear cut strategy. The leadership of Rahul Gandhi will completely derail Modi’s Jumla Express and put development back on track. Congress workers are elated about Rahul Gandhi’s elevation, which will add new zeal to the fight against the present regime.

In 1980, Punjab started the revival of the Congress, the rest of the country followed. The process has already begun. In 2019, history will repeat itself.

The party does not seem to be anywhere close to putting up a real fight against the BJP in 2019 

Sanjay Kumar
Professor and director of CSDS, Delhi

I would hesitate to say that Congress has learnt lesson from its defeat in 2014. Hardly anything seemed to have changed with the party since they lost the last Lok Sabha badly. The party does not seem to be anywhere close to putting up a real fight against the BJP in 2019.

The national leadership of the Congress is not able to enthuse either the party workers or the voters. The best way forward for the Congress would be to promote regional leadership in different states. And the party should focus on giving a larger role to its young leaders.

Elections are due in Gujarat in next couple of months, but voters still do not know who will lead the Congress there, and in Himachal Pradesh the command is still in the hands of the old, slightly discredited leadership.

The Congress should be well placed to pose a serious challenge to the BJP in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, and Rajasthan, the states that go to polls next year. But the party has not taken any decision about its leadership in these states. The problem isn’t that of not having a leader, it is of having too many leaders. In fact, the Congress could well be defeated in these states by its own leaders, rather than by the BJP.

But all this does not indicate that the 2019 Lok Sabha elections are over and there won’t be any challenge for the BJP. There is a slow, but distinct, current of growing dissatisfaction with the government, which could become stronger if corrective steps are not taken. If this grows, voters in the 2019 elections might vote to defeat a government and not to elect one. By default, someone or the other would win and a fractured mandate might result in a coalition government.

(Views expressed are personal)

Organisational readiness to harvest the discontent is missing 

Dilip Cherian
Founder of Perfect Relations and political strategist

The answer is no. It will take much more than a few isolated poll wins to be able to say that the current discontent against the Centre will result in a proportional upturn in the fortunes of the Congress party. As of now, such hopes are more wishful than tangible.

The secret of winning 2019 lies in winning states, friends and hearts. True, it may be won by fluke – including a tidal wave of negative votes. But organisational readiness to harvest the discontent is missing.

The party’s image stays dented. This is mainly because its attempts to attack are stunted and the ability of the party faithful to respond to gibberish from the other side is still slow and limited. A quick heal is if a new leadership style is unveiled, stays consistent and becomes decentralised.

There is much talk of revival under Rahul Gandhi, but, so far, his message remains vague to the ordinary voter. A whole new language —pithy, witty and youthful — must be crafted.

The task ahead is not easy. Politics, at its heart, is about communications between a leader and the public. Successful communication requires an understanding of the mass media and healthy doses of common sense and imagination. And in this New Age, image is as much about policy as poshak, as much about statistics of convenience as about age and ability of its representatives.

The status quo has to be shaken up. For the internet, the lever now is humour, irony, speed, stealth and volume. On all these parameters, the GOP leader needs a quick rethink. Of course, the Congress has been there before and has the organisational resilience to spring back. The question is can it? Or will it?

Congress is looking for its Belchhi Moment once again

Kumar Anshuman
Associate Editor, ThePrint

After the formation of the Janata Party government in March 1977, no one could imagine that the Congress party would ever gain the support it once had. But only six months later, on August 13, Indira Gandhi made a visit to Belchhi in Bihar, a remote village where 11 people (eight Dalits and three goldsmiths) were killed on May 24. Indira journeyed the distance of 70 km and reached Belchhi by taking a car, then by a jeep tied to a tractor and finally a ride on an elephant called Moti.

The same people who were cursing her rule six months ago were now shouting slogans: “Aadhi Roti Khayange, Indira Ko Bulayenge (We will eat half a bread, but will bring back Indira). Since then, Congressmen have learnt the art of waiting for the Belchhi moment.

Congress leaders always appear confident that the people will bring them back once they are tired of experimenting with other party governments. To learn from mistakes, first you need to accept there was a mistake. Congress never does that.

Now, Congress is searching for a new Belchhi in demonetisation, GST, and unemployment. But here is the problem. Congress at that time was facing a scattered group of parties under the Janata Party. This time, the BJP is a united and powerful force and the Congress still has many miles to cover before it could present itself as an alternative. No doubt, the recent green shoots in Gurdaspur, Punjab have raised the morale of party workers. But, for a revival, you need much more than a by-election win. The resurgence at the centre cannot happen until you win states and that is the real challenge before the party. Meanwhile, the panchayat called Belchhi is now a block, with a national highway passing through it.

Congress has no future because it is a party that is confused at the top

Bizay Sonkar Shastri
BJP spokesperson

It is a good thing to keep hopes high. However, the two dynasts should understand that their dream will remain one in 2019 as the people-centric policies of Modi government will not let the corrupt Congress to come back.

As far as the revival of Congress is concerned, it seems impossible now. People of the country have realised that all that the Congress played was the politics of giving assurances. The country now needs delivery and it is the Modi government that has delivered in a short span of time.

Congress is unlikely to get a chance again. Why the BJP believes that there is no future for Congress is because it is a party that is confused at the top and likes to keep the people confused.

Now, Congress is talking about Rahul Gandhi being promoted to the post of party president. That is the reason why Congress cannot hope for a revival. He will be promoted by superseding many hard working leaders and would not get the support that any party president should get.

Secondly, there are side effects of having a politically immature leader. We know that the downfall of the Congress will be complete soon after Rahul Gandhi takes over as the party president. PM Narendra Modi’s dream of Congress-mukt Bharat will be fully realised soon.

And as far as these two young leaders are concerned, they will also be upset with the chief dynast as he will not let them work. Congress is, and will be run, on the whims and fancies of the Gandhis.

Despite disappointment with the NDA government over its economic policies, there is no real traction for the Congress

Ruhi Tewari
Associate Editor, ThePrint

The year 2014 was a watershed year for the Congress, bringing it down to its electoral and political lowest, in what can only be described as an embarrassing tally, of 44 seats in the Lok Sabha. Since then, the party lost 13 assembly elections (even if it was the single largest party like in Goa and Manipur, it couldn’t form the government). It won only two —Punjab and in an alliance in Bihar. In the latter, the BJP eventually managed to wrest back power by striking an alliance with Nitish Kumar’s JD(U).

Attempts to forge alliances —with the Left in West Bengal, the Samajwadi Party in Uttar Pradesh and eventually even with JD(U) — only seem to have backfired, weakening its organisation in these states further. The Congress is a withering force, with an eroded base and no fresh narrative or strategy to counter the formidable election machine that the BJP is now.

The party leadership’s focus and coherence has displayed no energy to counter the Narendra Modi-Amit Shah combine, except over the last month after Rahul Gandhi’s US visit.

ThePrint’s ‘Jobs In Crisis’ series revealed that even though there is disappointment with the NDA government over its economic policies — in particular demonetisation and GST implementation — there is no real traction for the Congress. As a national party, it should have been able to seize the opportunity and capitalise on this weak phase of the BJP.

The Congress is in the middle of organisational polls and Rahul Gandhi might well become president soon, which many hope will impart fresh vigour and direction. However, the party seems far from being a serious challenger to the BJP and seems to be struggling to merely remain relevant in Indian politics.

Congress’ optimism today is fuelled by the stalling of the economy

Shekhar Gupta
Editor-in-Chief, ThePrint

Our national affliction is to declare victory too soon. Sometimes, even before the game has begun. Some of the current jubilation within the Congress is an example. It was also evident in the mood that its two most important young leaders, Jyotiraditya Scindia and Sachin Pilot displayed at #OTC hosted by @theprintindia last Monday.

Optimism is heady. Especially if it is returning after five years of despair if not longer. In my book, the Congress was looking, feeling and acting like a defeated party 2010 onward when the big scandals surfaced. It wont, however, pass a reality check.

Barring Punjab and the one coalition win in Bihar, Congress has little to show for its exertions. It has lost many states, some in elections, others through defections, and even laziness after returning better numbers as in Manipur and Goa.

Today’s optimism is fuelled by the stalling of the economy. As field reports by @theprintindia team from employment clusters show, job losses have caused widespread distress. People are asking questions about the wisdom of demonetisation and the implementation of GST. One BJP flank is exposed to the opposition.

Second, recent allegations against key BJP leaders and state governments, missteps by green-behind-the-ears chief ministers hand-picked by Delhi, rising farmers’ distress and concerns over lynchings, and unrest on important campuses have also helped to change the “hawa” and given the opposition a sniff.

There is still much work for the Congress to do if it wants to be in the contest for 2019. Assigning Sachin Pilot (Rajasthan) and Jyotiraditya Scindia (Madhya Pradesh) is a good step. But it will fight Narendra Modi in his home state without a Gujarati face. Similarly, the party organisation is non-existent in most states.

Most importantly, Rahul Gandhi doesn’t look like a challenger to Narendra Modi yet. He may be besting Modi on Twitter lately, but retweets are not votes. So, it is unwise yet to declare a turning of the corner, but a new optimism is visible within the Congress.